Infineon’s data centre forecast is a bet on how fast it can add capacity

Infineon expects data centre revenue to rise from about €2.2 billion in FY2026 to close to €4 billion in FY2027. Management told analysts that growth would be limited by supply again, even as the new Smart Power Fab in Dresden ramps up and manufacturing partners expand output. The forecast is as much a statement about how quickly those lines can deliver as it is about demand from data centres.

The comparison needs a consistent starting point. Infineon made €1.7 billion from dedicated AI power in FY2026, but that figure excludes power products sold into non-AI racks and servers. Comparing it with the €4 billion forecast would make growth look larger by counting more of the business in one year than in the other. Infineon plans to report a single data centre figure going forward.

The more telling number is the more than €10 billion in cumulative sales value that management associates with multiyear delivery and capacity reservation agreements. It includes deals still being negotiated. Volume commitments and prepayments can make an expansion easier to finance.

Dresden’s ramp is for power and analogue technologies. The wider investment plan also includes more silicon carbide capacity in Kulim, work on a 300 mm GaN facility in Villach and spending on assembly and test.

There is an important difference between more capacity on a supplier’s plan and more capacity available to the open market. Reservation agreements can help get a line built, but the customers putting up money may already have a claim on part of the output. The useful follow-up to the Dresden ramp is whether the added production covers the same products that are tight today, and how much of it is tied to commitments. The results do not disclose either.

Sources: Infineon FY2026 analyst call statement, pp. 4–5 and 10; Infineon FY2026 results